This abstract was published by the Tax Policy Center (Urban Institute & Brookings Institute) on Dec 4. Read also the VOX article for context. By Dylan Matthews, Dec 14, 2017.
Abstract — The Tax Policy Center has released distributional estimates of the Senate version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as passed on December 2, 2017. We find the bill would reduce taxes on average for all income groups in both 2019 and 2025. In general, higher income households receive larger average tax cuts as a percentage of after-tax income, with the largest cuts as a share of income going to taxpayers in the 95th to 99th percentiles of the income distribution. On average in 2027, taxes would change little for lower- and middle-income groups and decrease for higher-income groups. Compared to current law, 7 percent of taxpayers would pay more tax in 2019, 10 percent in 2025, and 48 percent in 2027.